A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
